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Senator Hillary Clinton, D-NY, is the favorite of ATU’s U.S. membersamong a crowded field of contenders for the Democratic nominationfor president. In two scientific polls conducted in August andNovember, the senator from New York was preferred by the greatestnumber of American members in her bid for the White House.
Members Feel Very Positive About ATU
In addition, the August poll revealed that ATU members feel very positive toward their Union, both at the local and national level. Nearly four outof five members are favorable toward their local union (78% favorable, 37% very favorable) with only 17% unfavorable. The positive image remains high when members are asked about "your national union" (68%favorable with 30% very favorable), and is slightly stronger when asked about "the Amalgamated Transit Union" (79% favorable, 39% very favorable).
Members Eager to Volunteer
In fact, U.S. ATU members feel so positive that they are eager to do volunteer work for the Union. A majority (58%) say they would volunteer for two hours per month in specific union activities (17% definitely, 41% probably). Almost a third of members would participate – but have not been asked.
By far, most would be willing to volunteer for community charities (75% total likely, 34% very likely). But in what may portend unprecedented ATU participation in the coming election, most say that they are willing to distribute literature to other members (69%, 26%).
There’s good news for organizers too. Most members would be willing to talk to workers who are not members (59%, 28%).
Another First for ATU
The polls initiated by International President Warren S. George mark the first time scientific surveys have been used to ascertain the opinions ofATU members. Each poll conducted by Lake Research Partners randomly surveyed 600 ATU members nationwide. The margin of error is +/- 4.0%.
The November figures confirmed the results of the August poll, which indicate that most members’ views of the Democratic candidates follow national trends:
In the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton leads with 38% of the ATU vote (4% higher than her August total), followed by Barack Obama (25%), and John Edwards (11%), with no other candidate above 3%. Nineteen percent are undecided.
Among the small number of ATU Republican primary voters,Rudy Giuliani leads, followed by Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney.
The Issues
The August poll discerned that members have a wide array of strongconcerns, but are mainly worried about pocketbook issues. When asked torate issues on a scale from 10 to 1, with a 10 meaning it is extremelyimportant the next president acts on this and 1 meaning it is not important at all, every issue tested was rated "10" by a majority of members.
The top tier includes retirement and Social Security (69% rate 10), healthcare and prescription drugs (68%), and then the economy and jobs (67%). The war in Iraq, a top concern nationally, comes in fourth place (63%), followed by two issues important to ATU members: federal funding for transit (59%) and labor and workplace safety issues (57%).
Members care strongly about union and workplace issues, but also aboutthe personal qualities of the candidates. Nearly 40% say a candidate’sposition on working issues (29%) or a union endorsement (10%) are most important in deciding their vote, followed by 20% for personal characterand values, 17% for positions on non-working issues, and experience (11%).
Nearly All Members Say They Will Vote
In what may be the best news of all, nearly all members (94%) say theyare likely to vote in the 2008 general election (85% almost certain, 9% probably). Among those likely voters, 89% are planning to vote in theirstate’s primary (74% almost certain, 15% probably) – with most planning to vote in the Democratic primary (62% Democratic, 13% Republican, 25% not sure). Politically, these members are very anti-Bush as his personal rating is only 18% favorable and 73% unfavorable – well below his national rating among all voters.
Communication
The poll also showed that the most effective union communication stilltakes place at the local level. Nearly three quarters of members say communication with their shop steward is an important source of information on issues (70% important, 35% very important), followedby their local’s newspaper or magazine (68%, 28%). Other importantforms of communication include the In Transit (70%, 26%), andother union communications (66%, 27%). Internet usage lags behindthe printed word in the ATU, however, a significant number – 37% – say the ATU website is an important source of information (14%very important).
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